A Modi-Vated BJP, Cautious Congress and Hopeful JDS Wait for Voting Day

As the hot May sun sets over the Arabian Sea on Monday evening, the high-voltage Karnataka Assembly election campaign, the likes of which the state has never seen, ends.

The ruling BJP, which was looking directionless in the beginning, got the Modi booster with the Prime Minister leading the campaign across the length and breadth of the vast state. The opposition Congress is confident of a victory but is cautiously optimistic in its optics. The third player JDS is hopeful of a hung Assembly which can help the Gowda clan form a coalition government.

When Karnataka elections 2023 were declared on March 29, the ruling BJP had to face several challenges to mount a campaign. The entry of PM Modi changed that. He led a high-voltage campaign across the state, requesting people to vote what the BJP calls “double-engine sarkara”. Modi’s arrival boosted the BJP’s popularity and the state leaders feel it will sway the results in their favour. Union Home Minister Amit Shah also extensively campaigned and strategized for the party.

Modi also conducted a 36-km-long roadshow in state capital Bengaluru where the Congress is equally formidable.

The grand old party localised its campaign, rarely talking about national issues. It ran the campaign like a regional party, led by Siddaramaiah, DK Shivakumar and MB Patil. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who is from Karnataka, also led a powerful campaign across the state.

Former Congress chief Sonia Gandhi addressed just one election meeting in Hubli, her first since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Her children and Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi were the party’s lead campaigners and their public meetings drew good crowds.

Kharge’s “poisonous serpent” remark against Modi hit the Congress, but the party managed to ride out the storm. Whether the proposed ban on Bajrang Dal affects the voting patterns is yet to be seen, but the BJP has made it a big election issue.

Congress’s star campaigner Siddaramaiah and will walk away with bulk of the credit if the party wins. The party is hoping for a division in Lingayat votes who have been the backbone of the BJP since 2004, and is also pinning its hopes on its five guarantees.

The BJP has also announced a lot of sops and the manifesto of two parties have many things in common.

The JDS, which has announced dozens of welfare schemes, that have been dubbed freebies by rivals, is fighting for its survival. With party supremo HD Deve Gowda being aged and unwell, his son and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy led a six-month-long campaign across the state.

Several pre-poll surveys have predicted a hung Assembly. Some have predicted a win for the Congress and some claim the BJP will cross 100 seats.

The Congress has invested everything in this do-or-die battle. The party’s chief election strategist Sunil Kanugolu, a reclusive behind-the-scenes man, led the election campaign from the party’s war room. If the Congress makes it to the Vidhana Soudha, Kanugolu will get a lot credit along with the others.

A defeat would be a death blow to the Congress as the entire party came together to fight this election. And a loss may even lead to the disintegration of the state unit.

If the BJP loses this election, it may have some impact on Lok Sabha elections 2024 but the state unit would live to fight another day. The Congress does not have that luxury.

A clear majority for either the Congress or the BJP will be the end of the JDS story and some of its MLAs may even switch sides keeping their political futures in mind.

Karnataka now hopes the arrival of the South West monsoon, the lifeline of India, in the first week of June will coincide with the arrival of a stable government in the state.

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