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Global stocks rose by more than 12% in the first half of this year and outperformed historical averages, according to analysis by CNBC Pro. The stellar performance of the MSCI World Index , which captures over 1,500 stocks across 23 developed countries, in the first half of this year beats the 3.89% average rise since 1970. The first half’s double-digit returns also beat the 9.64% average return over the past 53 years when considering only positive stock market performance periods. It is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. This year’s robust rebound was from a bear market in 2022, however. And CNBC Pro analysis shows that, since 1970, the index has risen 75% of the time in the year following a negative one, with an average return of 18.4% With the market already up by 12%, some investors have questioned whether there is enough room for growth in the second half. URTH 1Y mountain Historically, the second half of the year has underperformed the first half, according to the analysis of FactSet data. When stock markets have risen in the second half, the average over the past half a century has been an 8.8% gain, nearly a percentage point below the first half’s average returns. In addition, the MSCI World index has gained 12% or more in the first half in only 12 years over the same period. However, investors might take comfort in knowing that the second half failed to gain further in only two of those 12 years. The second-half performance in the remaining ten years led to gains of 6.6% over the period on average. But how often do stock markets rise? The MSCI World has risen marginally more often in the second half than in the first. It also rises more than twice as many times as it falls. The globally diverse index is investible through ETFs offered by iShares, Xtrackers, and Lyxor among others.
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