Yevgeny Prigozhin’s future — What could be next for Russia’s mutinous mercenary chief

Once a close ally and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin now finds himself exiled to Belarus after leading his private mercenary group in an armed mutiny against the Russian military.

Within 24 hours of a Wagner Group rebellion in which mercenaries shot down Russian fighter jets and took over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin halted the militia’s march on Moscow in a deal that allowed him to flee the country.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed late on Tuesday that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus and said other Wagner mercenaries had been offered accommodation at an abandoned naval base if they wish to join him.

Some analysts characterized last weekend’s unprecedented uprising as the most damaging moment in Putin’s 23 years in power and suggest this will not be the last of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, which includes thousands of former convicts recruited from Russian jails.

Despite the apparent amnesty granted in exchange for halting the offensive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that Prigozhin is a “dead man walking.”

In the absence of further details on the deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, analysts are broadly uncertain as to what the future holds for the Wagner Group and its leader.

The Russian security service has said it will not prosecute Wagner Group — but, in a televised address, Putin said that the organizers of the insurrection would be “brought to justice,” without mentioning Prigozhin by name.

Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe told CNBC’s “The Exchange” that this would not be a “one-act play” for either the Russian president or his former friend.

“Will Prigozhin remain alive in Belarus? Where will he go, will he continue to command the Wagner troops, which, by the way, are filthy rich and making money off gold mines and other things across Africa and also in Syria, and who will they take their orders from? Will they take their orders from Putin, or will they take them from Prigozhin?” Kempe mused, adding that the unknowns at this stage are the most important aspect of Prigozhin’s banishment.

The weekend events marked the culmination of a long-running feud between Prigozhin and the Russian armed forces. Wagner’s presence in Ukraine was integral to the Russian war effort, but its leader became increasingly vocal in recent months about perceived incompetence among the Kremlin’s military top brass, blaming generals for substantial losses sustained by the mercenary group.

Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global politics research at TS Lombard, said Prigozhin’s various diatribes on the Telegram messaging app over the last month, which challenged the entire premise for the war as laid out by Putin, may have “planted a seed that will germinate in Russian society turning against the war.”

“To the extent that Prigozhin has indicated what he himself would do if he was in charge (something which this weekend’s events show to be his goal), his vague and contradictory statements boil down to saying that now that this mistaken war is happening, Russia must fully mobilize under new leadership to fight it to a successful conclusion,” Granville said in a weekend note.

“This stance puts Prigozhin at the hard nationalist end of the domestic political spectrum. But his critique of the war will have struck a chord with the anti-war minority in Russian society as well as with the majority core of society that is apathetically/passively loyal to the Putin system despite varying degrees of disquiet about the war.”

The extent to which Prigozhin’s hardline criticism of the Russian war effort resonated will be an ongoing concern for Putin, and some analysts believe this has cleared the way for another attempt to seize control for himself, or for other warlords to fill the void.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told CNBC earlier this week that the risk of the Kremlin being perceived as weak can fuel skepticism that Prigozhin’s quiet retirement in Belarus will play out as stated.

“I’m not sure Putin can afford to allow this guy, who’s become very popular all of a sudden, to sit in Belarus and just remain quiet. I suspect that there is something more that will be done with Mr Prigozhin,” he said.

This sentiment was echoed by British consultancy Teneo, who suggested that, despite the alleged security guarantees offered to Prigozhin, Putin “might punish him in a highly visible way to demonstrate that such challenges to his rule will not be tolerated.”

“Looking further ahead, the chaotic turn of events in the past few days offered a glimpse into one potential scenario after Putin’s eventual departure from power,” said Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo.

“A fierce rivalry for power among influential interest groups, many backed by (private) military/armed power, might trigger a protracted period of political and social instability with unpredictable outcomes.”

Tursa also noted that some potential successors to Putin, including Prigozhin, hold “extremely nationalist and hostile views toward the West.”

“While domestic instability could end the so-called special military operation [in Ukraine], any sustained improvement to the country’s business environment would be unlikely.”