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By Amitabh Tiwari: The Janata Dal (Secular) has recorded its second-worst performance in the last five elections in Karnataka. The party’s hopes of emerging as a kingmaker have been quashed after the Congress party’s stupendous victory where it won more than 60 per cent of the seats on offer. The JD(S) could win only 19 seats, which is half of its 2018 tally of 37, and could record a mere 13.3 per cent vote share (down by five per cent).
While the JD(S) vote share has declined from 20.8 per cent in 2004 to 13.3 per cent in 2023, its percentage of seats won has declined much more drastically, from 25.9 per cent to 8.5 per cent during the same period.
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The JD(S) faces an existential crisis in the state having ceded space to both, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, in its fortress of Old Mysuru. The party lost about eight per cent support in its core voting segment of Vokkaligas (from 54 per cent in 2018 to 46 per cent in 2023 as per the Axis My India exit poll) and trailed behind the Congress in the Old Mysuru region, both in terms of votes and seat tally.
The JD(S) tally in Old Mysuru halved from its 2018 position, pulling down its overall seat tally in the 2023 Assembly polls.
The JD(S)-BSP parallels
The JD(S) situation has increasingly been looking similar to the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, which witnessed a similar trajectory of vote share loss. While the BSP vote share declined from 23.1 per cent in 2002 to 12.9 per cent in 2022, the percentage of its seats won by it declined much more, from 24.3 per cent to 0.2 per cent in the same period. The BSP, which won 19 seats in 2017, was reduced to mere one seat 2022.
The similarities between the two parties goes beyond seat shares and vote shares. The JD(S) and the BSP are family-controlled with the Gowdas and Mayawati at their helms respectively. Both largely represent one particular caste or community, Vokkaligas and Dalits. Unlike the JD(S) though, the BSP enjoyed a pan-state presence in its heyday while the Gowdas-led party is primarily restricted to only one region in the state.
The BSP and the JD(S) have thrived in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka politics in a triangular contest situation. From the 1990s till before the 2017 elections, the BSP was the kingmaker, having formed governments and/or alliances with all the main parties — the Samajwadi Party, the BJP, and the Congress. Just being in the fray has helped the BSP add other minorities, OBCs, and a section of upper caste voters to its core base of Dalits.
Since its formation, the JD(S) similarly has formed governments with both the Congress and the BJP. The party used to win between 30 and 40 seats on average, and has forced a hung assembly thrice in four elections between 2004 and 2018, playing the role of kingmaker. Vokkaligas, being an influential community, has been able to pull a section of minorities and Dalits towards the JD(S) as well.
What went wrong with JD(S) and BSP?
The over-dependence of the JD(S) on the Vokkaliga vote and the Old Mysuru region has prevented it from gaining state-wise presence. Out of every 10 JD(S) voters, four are Vokkaligas, and out of every 10 BSP voters today, eight are Dalits, as per the author’s calculations.
Family control has led to the exodus of leaders over the years (including former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah), thus weakening the party. Constant flip-flops and hobnobbing with both the BJP and the Congress have damaged its reputation — It was increasingly seen as power-hungry.
Allegation of the party being the “B-Team” of the Congress seems to have struck a chord with a section of voters. The fact that the JD(S) doing well could lead to instability also seems to have worked against it. Most of these reasons can also be ascribed to the BSP.
However, the biggest blow to both parties is the fact that the contest in Karnataka and UP have increasingly become bipolar. Neither the JD(S) nor the BSP could inspire confidence in anti-BJP voters. They lack the ammunition to cross 35-40 per cent vote share essential to win bipolar contests. The Congress and the SP have emerged as the main challengers in the respective states.
A section of minorities, Dalits and forward castes have thus moved away from the JD(S) to the Congress. Even a section of Vokkaligas (about eight per cent) shifted to the Congress as they saw a CM hopeful in DK Shivakumar. Similarly, in UP, minorities, OBCs, and non-Jatav Dalits moved away from the BSP to the SP and the BJP respectively.
What next for JD(S)?
To be fair to the JD(S), it is yet to reach the BSP’s level. In fact, it is where the BSP was in 2017. So, it has some crucial choices in front of it. Unless it democratises the party organisation, sorts family feuds, invokes regionalism (Karnataka is now the only Southern India state where regional force is not a main player), and toils on the ground, raising public issues, it risks losing all relevance.
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