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Kerala is one state where the BJP has not been able to gain electoral benefits. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 2 said the BJP-led government will come to power in Kerala just like in the northeastern states and Goa. His words have rejuvenated the BJP workers, and, one can see rigorous activities by the BJP workers on ground, including reaching out to Christians on Easter and inviting them to their homes on ‘Vishu’.
The statement of Thalassery Archbishop Mar Joseph Pamplany that if the central government increased the price of rubber to Rs 300, then they will vote for the BJP as the high-range farmers are suffering.
Why Should BJP Have Support of One Minority Community?
The demographics of Kerala show the state has about 54% Hindus, 26% Muslims and 18% Christians. Hindus have traditionally voted for the Congress-led UDF and CPIM-led LDF. Though the BJP has been able to get some percentage of votes from the Hindus, it is difficult for them to get their complete support. So, it is crucial for the BJP to have the backing of at least one minority community.
Majority of the Christians have electorally supported the Congress but with former CM Oommen Chandy being unwell and inactive, there is a vacuum of leaders who can reach out to the community. The late KM Mani, former finance minister of Kerala, was also a leader with great roots within the Christian community. Mani was in the UDF fold but following his demise in April 2019, the Kerala Congress (M) is led by his son Jose K Mani, which is part of LDF since 2020. The BJP hopes to take advantage of all these aspects.
BJP believes that the statement by the archbishop, cardinal has helped them. People in such positions within the church openly saying that they see all fronts equally has boosted the confidence of the BJP. They believe that earlier the BJP was not even seen as an option but now the scenario is changing. Both the LDF and Congress are discussing the issue, and so is the Kerala society.
BJP has begun their outreach a year ahead of the 2024 general elections. They have in mind five Lok Sabha constituencies — Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, Attingal and Mavelikara — which have a sizeable number of Christian population. According to the BJP, the Christian population in these constituencies is 20% to 30% and if they are able to tap into it, it will benefit them electorally. In Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP candidate lost Congress’s Shashi Tharoor last two times in a majority of about 15,000 votes.
Johny Nellore who was with the Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction has resigned as the deputy chairman of the party and secretary of UDF and said he will float a new secular national party. Johnny Nellore has also spoken about the farmers, especially rubber farmers, while announcing his resignation. This new party will have people from the Christian community and reports are abuzz that it will be supporting the NDA. The aim is to reach out to the Kerala Congress groups, which are presently with the LDF and the UDF.
Both CPIM and Congress have started the counter measures right from the time the BJP has begun their outreach to the Christian community. Both have claimed the drive the BJP is “hypocritical” as the party is allegedly attacking Christians and their places of worship in other states. They have also pointed out how the clergy approached the Supreme Court against the “minority attacks”.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had also weighed in on this. The CM had said, “It’s outside Kerala that the attack on Christians took place. They were not able to choose that line here (Kerala) not because the Sangh Parivar has some special affection for the minorities. But here, if you take a communal stand, and try to create a communal clash, the government will take a strict action.”
Opposition leader VD Satheesan had said even as BJP leaders are visiting Christian houses in Kerala, a minister in neighbouring poll-bound Karnataka has said if Christians come to their house they should be beaten up as they are coming for religious conversion.
Has BJP Been Able to Make Inroads into the Community?
They have been able to create a perception that the BJP is not untouchable. They have been able to keep alive the discussions on their outreach.
Shaiju Antony, PRO of Laity Movement, said the outreach is just an election engineering by the BJP. Even as the elections are nearing in Karnataka, they are doing this outreach in Kerala and not in Karnataka because it was a bishop from Karnataka who has approached the court against the atrocities on Christians.
Shaiju Antony said, “After all these visits, we have not heard the BJP condemning the atrocities against Christians. All places where Christians are minorities, they are using ‘ghar wapsi’ as a weapon. There are some takers for this outreach especially some clergy but among the common people they have not been able to make changes. Some could also be supporting because of the cases against them.”
There are many in the Christian community even among the clergy who feel a lot of hype is being created around the BJP’s outreach drive but hardly any positive responses. Many feel that the real issues are not being discussed.
J Prabhash, political analyst and former HOD, political science, University of Kerala said through clergy, the BJP is aiming at bringing the Kerala Congress factions into their fold. “The BJP is looking at it in the long term. If the clergy takes a stand in support of the BJP, it will make the way easier for the Kerala Congress groups to be with the BJP. They have been able to keep the topic alive and also the untouchability factor is no longer there,” he said.
The outreach to the Christian community is not an easy task and one that will yield results soon but the BJP is planning meticulously. So far, they have been successful in creating a perception that the BJP is no longer untouchable. But even now the common man in the community is not supportive of the BJP. This is what they are aiming to change and there is a long road ahead.
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