One Take | The Gehlot Factor, Pilot’s Litmus Test & Raje’s Comeback Plans: Which Way Will Rajasthan Wind Blow?

The first thing that strikes you as you enter Jaipur, also called the Pink City, are the huge pink hoardings lining the capital city.

As you cross the Bharat Jodo Setu, inaugurated during Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, it’s clear that the hoardings are an attempt to beat the cyclical pattern of poll results which ensures each time a different party comes to power.

The hoardings have a huge image of chief minister Ashok Gehlot announcing his new schemes — from economic benefits for women to electricity sops and jobs for the youth. There is no party symbol nor any picture of the Gandhis. The message is clear — these polls will be fought on the Gehlot factor.

So, it comes as no surprise that the party office is near-deserted and even the homes of the top leaders and MLAs are not buzzing with visitors. In fact, the feedback given to the central leadership is that the anti-incumbency factor has not kicked in against Gehlot while many of his ministers are facing this. So, the party is likely to change many sitting MLAs.

PILOT FACES A TEST

But one cannot talk about Rajasthan Congress without mentioning Sachin Pilot. At his house, the line of visitors is surprising as he is just an MLA on paper. But the supporters and ticket-seekers are aware of his hotline to the Gandhis and are hopeful that he can ensure tickets for them.

Pilot, however, faces a challenge. In the last polls, Gujjars — the caste he belongs to — had en-mass voted for the Congress and one of the reasons was that they believed Pilot could be chief minister. They stuck on even though he was made the deputy CM, hoping that his time would come.

As speculation rises on Pilot floating his own party, there are two factors which come up — One, many in the BJP think this could hurt them as Pilot is raising the same issues as the BJP, for instance corruption. BJP’s calculation and hope of a swing of Gujjar votes and the anti-Gehlot votes could be compromised.

The second is a worry for pilot. We are aware that a Kalyan Singh minus the BJP was soon forgotten. Similarly, it’s quite possible that many of Pilot’s supporters may be wary of his new front, thinking they may not have a future. This is one reason why Pilot is not too keen to float his party yet. He also feels that having been in the Congress for years and contributed to it, he would rather fight from within than outside.

VASUNDHARA’S ACID TEST

In stark contrast is the BJP office and homes of the party’s top leaders. Both Rajendra Rathore, the LoP, and state BJP chief CP Joshi barely have a moment to breathe. Packed schedules, diktat from the Centre to roam the entire state, and meeting all supporters keeps them busy.

The BJP doesn’t want to be smug and complacent in the belief of the cyclical pattern in the state. But while they are vocal in talking about Gehlot’s ‘corruption’ and Pilot’s future, when it comes to ‘Rani Sahiba’ Vasundhra Scindia, there is total silence.

Interestingly, while the leaders are busy with their outreach, Vasundhara Scindia herself is out of reach. Seen in Rishikesh, the former chief minister is now in Jharkhand and incognito on party work. But as she faces a battle within the party, it’s her future which is in question. The party has so far made it clear that it won’t go to polls with any CM face. But it also realises that Vasundhara Scindia as a factor cannot be ignored. Some in private acknowledge that dislodging Gehlot is possible with Vasudhara in the top post. But as she faces an uneasy relation with her male counterparts in the state and no comments from the top two in the party, her silence is seen as one before the storm.

Like Pilot, her political future hangs in the clout she will exercise during the polls.

My take — the desert elections are a do-or-die for both Pilot and Vasundhara. Despite their strong opposition to each other, it’s the common thread that ties them.