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As the crucial Karnataka assembly elections ended with a total of nearly 66 percent voter turnout on Wednesday, multiple pollsters predicted a hung assembly in the southern state, with no main parties – the ruling BJP, the Congress, and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S) – getting a full majority to form a new government.
Since the exit polls results are out, the debate is now on will the regional party JD(S) once again emerges as a ‘kingmaker’, as it did in 2018, in the event of a hung verdict in the 2023 Karnataka polls. As per the predictions, it seems this time is no different.
With the possibility of hung house in Karnataka, JD(S) leader SS Shankaranna said no party will form government without the support of Janata Dal (Secular).
Karnataka Exit Poll Results 2023
While the ABP News-C Voter exit poll predicted that the Congress would get 100-112 seats, BJP 83-95, JD(S) 21-29, the Republic TV-P MARQ forecast that the Congress will get 94-108 seats, the BJP 85-100 and JD(S) 24-32.
The India TV-CNX exit polls gave the Congress 110-120 seats and the BJP 80-90 seats. They predicted 20-24 seats for the JD(S).
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll stated that the Congress is likely to get 99-109 seats, the BJP 88-98 and the JD(S) 21-26 while the Zee News-Matrize Agency predicted that the Congress would get 103-118, the BJP 79-94 and the JD(S) 25-33.
The News Nation-CGS poll said the BJP would get 114 seats, the Congress 86 and the JD(S) 21. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat forecast that the BJP was likely to win 94-117, Congress 91-106 and the JD(S) 14-24.
Times Now-ETG exit polls gave 113 seats to the Congress and 85 to the BJP. It predicted 23 seats for JD (S).
JD(S) Campaign in 2023 Karnataka Polls
Plagued by desertions and internal rifts and with the image of being a “family party”, Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy, has in a way single-handedly managed the JD(S) campaign across Karnataka. He has by and large focused his campaign on a five-fold programme called ‘Pancharatna’ — quality education, healthcare, housing, farmer welfare, and employment — that the JD(S) plans to implement if voted to power.
Though the 89-year-old Deve Gowda initially stayed away from campaigning due to age-related ailments, he pitched in and travelled and campaigned for JD(S) candidates in the past couple of weeks, especially in the party bastion of Old Mysuru region, making an emotional pitch, and countering the Congress’ and BJP’s attacks against his party.
Allegations by both national parties that the JD(S) was the ‘B team’ of the other, and that JD(S) was hoping to win just 35-40 seats at the most to play a crucial role in government formation in case of a hung verdict were among the criticisms faced by Kumaraswamy in this campaign.
2018 Karnataka elections
In the 2018, BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats out of total 224, followed by the Congress at 80 and JD(S) at 37.
With no party having a clear majority and as the Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, BJP’s BS Yediyurappa staked a claim and formed the government. However, he had to resign ahead of the trust vote as the saffron party failed to get the required numbers.
Subsequently, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as chief minister, but the wobbly dispensation collapsed in 14 months as 17 legislators resigned and came out of the ruling coalition and defected to the BJP, facilitating it to come back to power.
History of JD(S)
Since the time of its formation in 1999, Janata Dal(Secular) has never formed a government on its own, but had been in power twice in coalition with both national parties — for 20 months with BJP from February 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 Assembly polls- with Kumaraswamy as the chief minister.
The party’s best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 Assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 was its second best. In the 2018 polls, JD(S) won 37 seats.
The party’s vote share is stagnant. It has been ranging between 18-20 per cent, as the party has managed to continue its hold on to a sizeable number of constituencies, predominantly in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru region (south Karnataka).
It is this Gowda family’s hold over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region comprising 61 seats (excluding the 28 constituencies in Bengaluru), which the ruling BJP and Congress are looking forward to breaking and improving their prospects.
The Congress is considerably strong in Old Mysuru region and has been a traditional rival for the JD(S) in the belt, BJP however, is weak here.
(with inputs from PTI)
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